A grim outlook for Conservatives according to polls, but the gap will close

Over the last month, a number of polls have painted a grim picture for the federal Conservatives in the event of an increasingly likely summer election.  On June 24, Abacus Data gave the Liberals a 10 point national lead. On June 30, Ipsos, gave the Liberals a 12 point national lead. And just yesterday, Abacus posted another poll, giving the Liberals another 12 point national lead. 

More concerning for the Conservatives are the regional breakdowns: according to the most recent Abacus poll, the Liberals hold a 14 point lead in Ontario - a must-win province for the Tories. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are polling at an eye watering 53%. The Liberals also hold a healthy lead over the Bloc Québécois in Quebec, and are neck and neck with the NDP in B.C. The Conservatives are holding onto their dominant position in the prairies, but even there, their numbers are mostly on a downward trajectory.

There are a number of unique conditions that have contributed to the Liberal lead throughout the pandemic.

First, the Prime Minister has benefitted from a year of one-on-one time with Canadians. In the earlier stages of the pandemic, it became something of a routine to see the Prime Minister emerge from Rideau Cottage to deliver his daily updates. And, more often than not, Trudeau came bearing gifts. Laid off because of the economic shutdown? We have CERB cheques.  Thinking about cutting staff? We have CEWS cheques.  Need a vaccine? We’ve got an entire portfolio for you to pick from.

To be sure, bewildering decisions were made, from borders to domestic production of vaccines. But every week, for more than a year, Trudeau was generally positioned as the bearer of good news, happily wielding the full might of the Canadian treasury to solve your problems.

Second, with parliament shut down and social distancing protocols firmly in place, it could be argued that the Liberal government operated with reduced media scrutiny. As David Akin explained on the West Block, media availabilities conducted virtually were no longer controlled by the press gallery but by political staffers, and journalists were prevented from doing in-person inquisitions in the West Block. This limited the Liberal government’s exposure to challenging questions and ultimately, negative press.

Third, the pandemic required a level of cooperation between parties that generated a temporary period of détente. While the opposition may have critiqued policy details, they were generally (and it could be said necessarily) supportive of the government’s general approach to managing the pandemic.

In addition, with billions of aid flowing to the provinces, provincial premiers — who traditionally operate as another check on prime ministers — were mostly complementary of the work being done in Ottawa. Indeed, even Doug Ford raved about Trudeau as a partner.

“Prime Minister, I want to thank you, and recognize you and the Deputy Prime Minister for your unwavering support during the pandemic,” Ford said enthusiastically at a joint press conference with Trudeau in August. “People expected us to put our differences aside, to put the politics aside, and to work together, and that’s exactly what we did. So thank you again Prime Minister...Now I’d like to introduce, the Honourable Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada. Partner with all premiers across this [country]. And I can tell ya folks, when we called the Prime Minister - not just myself all Premiers -- he stood up to the plate. He supported us. He was on the phone every single week asking ‘what do you need? How can I help you?’ And you wonder why I’m always up here praising him? Because he did an incredible job. The Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister did an incredible job, and so again, thank you, Prime Minister.”

If one were to have entered a coma at the outset of the pandemic in March, and woken up to a Doug Ford press conference in August, you would be excused for thinking you had entered a parallel universe. Such was the extraordinary nature of pandemic politics.

A beautiful summer is now upon us. Canadians are vaccinated. Patios are open. One could hardly imagine a better launching off point for a federal election. 

Liberal strategists including David Herle and Scott Reid agree, reasonably suggesting Trudeau should call an election as soon as possible.

The scenario they envision is this: the Liberals call an election sometime in July. This triggers a 36 day writ period dominantly through August. Trudeau wins his third mandate in early September, and returns to the House in late September with a majority secured.

It’s a good plan.

With Canadians preoccupied with the benefits of their new-found freedom, they might not be overly motivated to follow the political drama of an election or even consider the alternatives.

But, many of the conditions that contributed to Trudeau’s 10+ point lead have begun to erode, and in the context of an election, may disappear altogether.

A federal election will finally offer O’Toole the national stage he’s (mostly) been denied since becoming leader. He will get the opportunity to properly introduce himself to Canadians, and pitch his vision to the country. The spotlight will no longer be tracked on Trudeau alone, but on a stage he must share with O’Toole, Singh, and Blanchet. (And maybe Annamie Paul, if the Greens take her off mute).

In addition, the cross-party collaboration that characterized Canadian politics in the depths of the pandemic is well and truly over. The Conservatives have worked double time to block the passage of Liberal legislation. Jagmeet Singh has taken to Tik Tok. And Ford hasn’t just stopped introducing the Prime Minister as a “partner to all premiers,” he’s now running attack ads against him.

As the imminent dangers of the pandemic wane, Canadians will also begin to look forward, and consider which party is best positioned to take Canada into the future. The Liberal approach - which since 2015 has relied heavily on deficit spending - comes with consequences. One of those consequences is the inflation that is already taking hold across the country.  With the fog of the pandemic lifting, Canadians might begin to wonder: why are things are becoming more expensive? Who has caused it? And which leader is best positioned to solve it?

Finally, if the election is conducted beyond the strict confines of lockdown (that is to say, in person), the dynamic between government ministers and journalists could change.  Cabinet ministers who left the parliamentary session with serious questions over their head, including Harjit Sajjan and Carolyn Bennett, will surely be made to answer those questions in person - without the protection of a digital interface. This could surface challenges for the Liberals throughout the writ.

The current political context in Canada undoubtedly favours the Liberals. A year of undivided attention, hand-cuffed opposition, and a number of wins will be difficult to overturn in 36 days. A short election between the summer months will theoretically limit the ability of the Conservatives to bridge the gap.

Nevertheless, elections inevitably hold all kinds of surprises that can radically change their course. And, as we transition from the surreal solitude of pandemic life, to the real-life chaos of an election, there will be more challenges for the Liberals to navigate.

Perhaps most importantly, an election will offer opposition leaders a stage, and an opportunity.  If they can use this stage to deliver a compelling narrative, avoid any missteps, and capitalize on a couple of Liberal blunders, the numbers will inevitably begin to converge in their favour. While victory for the Conservatives looks increasingly unlikely, they might still prevent the Liberals from winning a majority, and for them, at this point, that’s a win.

Justin Burrows is founder of Geopolitics Group, and former policy advisor to Canada’s Minister of Finance.