O'Toole's new conservatism
Canada's Conservative leader looks to Boris Johnson, but will it work?
After midnight on August 23, 2020, Erin O’Toole took the stage for the first time as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC). As O’Toole delivered his remarks, a change of tone became evident. Almost immediately, O’Toole began pivoting away from his leadership campaign’s “true blue” messaging, which sought to position him to the right of his rival Peter MacKay, to a more prime ministerial tone.
During his speech O’Toole made a point of reaching out to all Canadians, particularly those who might never have considered the Conservatives before. Notably, O’Toole reached out to members of Canada’s unions — a constituency that hadn’t just opposed conservatives, but actively campaigned against them.
O’Toole’s charm offensive for the hearts and minds of ‘working Canadians,’ has continued ever since. It is part of a broader effort by O’Toole to build a new coalition of conservative voters. The strategy includes policy less beholden to conservative economic principles, and more focused on implementing a “Canada First” approach.
On trade, for example, O’Toole has stated that his government would “trade freely, with free nations,” and “not spend our time chasing deals with predatory countries like communist China.” He would pursue free trade among countries that “follow the rules,” and would consider applying tariffs to those that don’t. To that end he has championed a Canadian-New-Zealand United-Kingdom free trade deal.
This strategy is informed, at least in part, by Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s successful 2019 campaign. Indeed, in an interview with Steve Paikin, O’Toole remarked that he has looked to Johnson’s success in reaching out to long standing Labour voters in the United Kingdom (U.K.).
O’Toole was referring to Johnson’s “stonking” 2019 victory (to use Johnson’s description), which saw the Conservatives trounce Labour by the widest margin since Margaret Thatcher’s 1987 win. So convincing was Johnson’s win that the Conservatives took seats in Labour strongholds dubbed ‘the red wall,’ triggering what the Economist has characterized as a fundamental “realignment” in British politics.
On its surface, Johnson’s landslide victory is attributed to his steadfast commitment to “Get Brexit Done,” which consolidated “leave” voters behind the Conservatives. It is also attributed to the dismal leadership of Jeremy Corbyn. But below the surface, it was Johnson’s shift away from conservative economic principles to a more left-of-centre fiscal policy, paired with a new conservative cultural policy, which caused “working class” voters to reconsider the Conservatives.
“At its simplest,” writes Adrian Wooldridge, “[Johnson’s] version of one-nation Conservatism means an amalgam of left-wing policies on economics and right-wing policies on culture.”
It is this shift - away from strict adherence to right-wing economics and toward a new conservative cultural policy - that O’Toole appears to be re-engineering.
Far from espousing fiscal restraint, O’Toole has stated that as prime minister he would pursue “ambitious national projects, infrastructure, and federal programs that make it easier for people to get ahead.” Among these projects include a long list social policy objectives that would increase benefits to families and veterans.
O’Toole has reinforced this approach throughout the pandemic. Beyond merely supporting government relief programs, O’Toole has often criticized the Liberal government for not moving fast enough, including on programs designed to help Canadian businesses retain workers and pay rent.
While O’Toole hasn’t matched Johnson’s ambitious climate plan, he has worked to make the CPC’s position on the environment more palatable to climate-conscience voters. O’Toole has stated he supports the Paris Climate Agreement and recently introduced his own carbon pricing scheme.
O’Toole has also delivered on the second half Johnson’s winning mix: a detailed conservative cultural policy. In his leadership platform, “A Call to Take Back Canada,” O’Toole offers a lengthy section on criminal justice, including increasing mandatory minimum sentences, and introducing a “Freedom of Movement Act” which would “prevent radicals from shutting down the economy and preventing people from living free from fear.”
Like Johnson, who considered eliminating public funding for the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), O’Toole has stated he would cut funding to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC). More recently, O’Toole has pledged to repeal Bill C-10 — the government’s proposed amendments to the Broadcasting Act.
Perhaps the defining characteristic of O’Toole’s cultural policy has been pushing back against ‘cancel culture.’ From his leadership campaign to his role as leader of the opposition, O’Toole has made a point of positioning himself as the vanguard of liberal democratic values against the “woke left.”
This positioning was captured in O’Toole’s recent speech to caucus, where he pushed back against calls to ‘cancel Canada Day.’ “I’m concerned that injustices in our past or in our present are too often seized upon by a small group of activist voices,” O’Toole stated. “Let’s acknowledge where we fall short. Let’s ensure we do not forget or cover it up. But lets also channel the pain of a Canada falling short to build up the country, and not tear it down.”
While there are broad policy parallels between O’Toole and Johnson, there are also key differences.
By all accounts, Johnson’s 2019 manifesto offered a bold vision for the U.K. After years of failed negotiations and bad press, Johnson unapologetically campaigned to “Get Brexit Done.” He also delivered a robust economic development plan to “level up” regions outside of London, and an ambitious green energy plan. As Johnson said in a rousing speech to supporters ahead of election day: “Let’s be carbon neutral by 2050, and Corbyn neutral by Christmas.”
O’Toole’s team, by contrast, appears to be taking a relatively risk-averse approach, choosing to shore-up traditional weaknesses, on climate, for example, and deliver traditional Tory-fare, like balancing the budget.
O’Toole will also enter the next federal election under vastly different political conditions than Johnson’s 2019 Britain.
O’Toole, at this juncture, will not enjoy the benefit of a polarizing ballot question, like Brexit, which served to rally ‘leave’ voters behind the British prime minister. While Trudeau has had many blunders — and is in the midst of more right now — it is not clear if any of these missteps have produced a wedge issue significant enough to galvanize voters behind the Conservatives.
Nor will O’Toole benefit from a weak opponent, like Corbyn. Even the Conservatives must concede (however begrudgingly) that Trudeau is an effective campaigner.
Canada’s next federal election will also be fought in the midst - or aftermath - of COVID-19. This could mean that O’Toole’s election hopes rest dominantly on how Canadians perceive Trudeau’s management of the pandemic. But, if we trust recent polling, Trudeau’s numbers continue to improve as vaccination rates rise and patios open.
It is clear that O’Toole and his team have taken inspiration from Johnson’s 2019 victory, but it is less clear if O’Toole’s new approach will inspire Canadians to vote for him. And, while O’Toole can repurpose some of Johnson’s policies, he can’t manufacture the unique context in which Johnson contested the 2019 election. Indeed, unlike Johnson, the stars appear to be aligning against O’Toole, and if there is one thing every politician needs for a stonking victory, it’s a little bit of luck.
Great insight—I might even say a “stonking” article. Thanks for sharing.
Great article Justin. It appears that O'Toole will have a high hill to climb if he is to defeat Trudeau. I would like your take on the numerous scandals that have hit the liberals and in particular Trudeau himself. They seem to be resurrecting again and should they become campaign bound how much will this hurt him and his Government from winning or achieving his coveted majority?